Seismo Blog

Back-to-back ETS events, maybe

February 6, 2016

by Steve Malone

Just following the end of the recent "standard" northern Washington-souther Vancouver Island ETS, another has apparently started heading south toward Oregon.  A recent post give lots of information about slow earthquakes trembling beneath Vancouver Island and another provides a general  perspective on tremor activity.  These and the Deep Tremor News giving details and observations of the recent activity provide lots of background and related information to help understand this post.

After many years of following ETS activity by tracking deep tremor with the wech-o-meter many of us think we can make some educated guesses about what will happen next.  As often as not we are wrong (at least I am) but that is often the way science progress is made; develop a hypothesis about some phenomenon and then test that hypothesis against what happens in experiments.  In our case the experiment is done for us by the actions of plate tectonics.  Thus I will hypothesize that what has started over the past couple of weeks in southern Washington will develop into a full, major ETS covering north and central Oregon.  There are two observations I base this forecast on.  The first, as mentioned above, is the observation that tremor has been moving south in southern Washington.  It appears to be headed for Oregon.  For the second observation it's useful to look at the pop-up plot that Aaron Wech provided in his "perspective" post showing the time history of tremor plotted against north-south distance. This 10 year plot shows tremor activity isolated in both time (a few weeks) and space (up to a few hundred kilometers),  Each of these major streaks represents a slow-slip earthquake often recognizable by GPS data as a gradual shift to the south-west of a few cm.  The very small (and short) streaks are probably also slow-slip earthquakes but are too small to usually show in the GPS data.  The most recent Vancouver Island-northern Washington ETS is labeled as "Current Activity".

One thing that obviously stands out in this plot is the relatively few streaks in the zone between southern Washington and southern Oregon.  In southern Oregon and California there are many streaks, particularly in the most southern part.  From this plot it seems that in norther Oregon there are very obvious, major ETS events only about every two years (mid 2007, late 2009, mid 2011 and mid 2013).  While there seems to be a small event in central Oregon in late 2014  it has been more than two years since a major event.  Our hypothesis is that these ETS events are readjustments at the bottom of the transition zone between locked and freely sliding parts of the subducting interface and apparently occur at fairly regular intervals.  These readjustments  should even out over time and so central Oregon is "over due" for one.

However if we look at the details of some of the previous major ETS events they don't seem to follow a consistent pattern.  The following figure shows the color coded (blue earliest, red latest) developments of three major northern Oregon ETS events and also the minor one in 2014.

The ETS event of 2009 followed a fairly uniform pattern of starting in the north and propagating fairly uniformly to the south. The other three did much more jumping around.  For example the one in 2013 started in the far north, jumped to near Corvallis, propagated both north and south from there for a bit before continuing only to the north ending at almost where it had first started.

The current continuing ETS may be doing something similar, though it has been active in the north end of its zone (southern Washington) for over two weeks so it will probably end up having its own unique pattern.  Time will tell if this is the case or if it will even develop into a full zone ETS.  You can follow its progress with the daily updates of the wech-o-meter and from time to time the Deep Tremor News will be updated too.

Slow Earthquake Trembles beneath Vancouver Island

January 7, 2016

by Shelley Chestler

Did you know that there is a type of earthquake that happens so slowly that we can’t feel it? One of these slow earthquakes is happening under Vancouver Island and northern Washington right now!

A Perspective on Tremor Activity

January 7, 2016

by Aaron Wech

With tremor activity occurring in the Pacific Northwest, it's important to provide perspective.

Don't Sweat the Little Ones

December 14, 2015

by Shelley Chestler

The recent earthquakes around the Puget Sound are probably not indicative of the “big one.”

A new look for pnsn.org

December 4, 2015

by Jon Connolly

The new pnsn.org website aims to provide a better user experience for all devices, prioritize features, and provide robust availability during a seismic event.
The July 2015 New Yorker article “The Really Big One,” by Kathryn Schulz, shook up the Pacific Northwest (PNW) more than any earthquake has since the Magnitude-6.8 Nisqually earthquake in 2001. In the article’s most dooming statement, the head of the Cascadia FEMA division was quoted saying, “everything west of I-5 will be toast.” This assertion scared the living daylights out of PNW residents, creating a sense of terror and hopelessness that was the antithesis of what the article meant to do: to spur the region into preparing for this potentially devastating event.

Unusual earthquake swarm south of Bend, OR

October 23, 2015

by Steve Malone

A somewhat unusual earthquake swarm started early on Oct 22, 2015 in an area about 65 km (40 miles) southwest of Bend, OR (25 km WSW of La Pine, OR). 36 events have been detected and located by the PNSN as of noon on Oct. 23, the largest only Magnitude 2.5. This ongoing swarm is in the same area that had similar swarms in 2001 and 2012 and is likely just the same sort of thing taking place again. For more details and updates....

How big was that earthquake?

September 24, 2015

by Steve Malone

Determining an earthquake's size seems to often result in different and inconsistent estimates. The "Magnitude" of an earthquake can be determined by several different methods, all of which should have some relationship to one another and, at least be consistent one earthquake to another. Unfortunately that's often not the case. PNSN seismologists spend lots of time estimating (measuring and calculating) earthquake magnitudes and end up discussing (arguing over) different techniques and complaining (whining) about inconsistencies and criticizing (belittling) certain results. Recently some effort is being made to try and refine (improve) our standard, routine ways of determining magnitude. We are starting to upgrade our published catalog with these "improved" magnitude estimates so you may see these estimates change from what was in the catalog before. Don't worry. The earthquakes have not changed, just our estimate of how big they are. For the gory details of how this is being done......

Summer rockfall time, yet again

August 21, 2015

by Steve Malone

With hot dry weather it is not surprising that the seismic records for volcano stations show lots of signals consistent with rockfall/avalanches and other exotic seismic events. In fact it is a bit of a surprise that we have not seen more and bigger such events this summer........ so far. Recent activity at Mount Rainier has included a debris flow (probably related to a jökulhlaup) and a moderate sized rockfall from high on the southwest side of the volcano. For some of the seismic details.....

Why earthquakes disappear

May 31, 2015

by Renate Hartog

Earthquakes have been appearing and disappearing from the U.S.G.S. webpages, this blog explains why.

PNW Earthquake Early Warning prototype goes live

February 18, 2015

by Steve Malone

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is now officially working for the Pacific Northwest (Washington and Oregon) in the same way it has in California for the past two years. It even got tested the first night in operations and worked...sort of. A workshop hosted by the PNSN at the University of Washington on Feb 17 introduced the topic and featured software to a group of about forty invited participants. For a few details on the workshop and the system's first live test......
The Seattle Seahawks' win over the Green Bay Packers in over time ended up so exciting that many of us serious scientists forgot to be serious and analyze the seismograms. Yikes! What a crazy ending. In fact, most of the game was seismically quiet (and disheartening for Seahawk fans), but the final half hour produced several seismic events that challenges the original "Beast Quake" for seismic supremacy. For our semi-scientific analysis......

Panther versus Seahawk Game Analysis

January 11, 2015

by Steve Malone

Both the PNSN experiment and the Seahawks were successful Saturday evening. Both got off to a slow start. The PNSN QuickShake display had several bad dropouts during the first half and at half-time the Seahawks were only ahead by four points. When working properly QuickShake provided us with "early Warning" of a successful play that would show up on TV a few seconds later. None of the signals compared to the size of those during the original "Beast Quake" of 2011 but some interesting patterns were seen. For more detailed analysis......
Last year the PNSN used the vibrations generated by enthusiastic Seahawk fans at CenturyLink Field to test instruments, data acquisition and web based displays. Some might say the seismic monitoring inspired fans to greater cheering resulting in the Seahawk's successful Super Bowl run. With new instruments recently acquired and improved data processing and display techniques developed we are again looking for somewhere to test them. With the Seahawks again in the playoffs with home field advantage why not watch/help them again? For the details.....

Canadian ETS morphing to Washington one?

November 18, 2014

by Steve Malone

Over two weeks of tremor in central Vancouver Island has been progressing southward. Though we don't know about the geodetic component we suspect that this represents a slip event that is propagating southward. Since a southern Vancouver Island-Northern Puget Sound ETS is due about now the question is will this current activity continue all the way to southern Puget Sound. For some details.....

Great ShakeOut, Great success!

October 16, 2014

by Angel Ling

Congratulations and thank you for your participation in the Great ShakeOut Earthquake Drill! Hopefully it gave you a great opportunity to practice "Drop, Cover and Hold on", and review and update emergency preparedness plans and kits/supplies. Thanks again to make the Pacific Northwest safer. Read more to see what the Great Washington ShakeOut looks like at the PNSN!

The Great ShakeOut 2014 is Tomorrow!

October 15, 2014

by Angel Ling

Tomorrow is the Great Washington Shake Out 2014! Please join us in the World's largest Earthquake Drill at 10:16 a.m. on October 16. Read more...

Three Cascadia ETS events in past month??

September 4, 2014

by Steve Malone

Since Aug 10 there have been three parts of the Cascadia subduction zone with extended periods of near continuous tectonic tremor. Typically if tremor continues in a zone for more than 10 days then the geodesists can easily see an accompanying slow-slip event coincident with it. While tremor in the three zones has not been exactly synchronous it is somewhat unusual for this much of Cascadia to "light up" this strongly all together. For some of the details....

Is Mount St. Helens seismicity increasing?

July 29, 2014

by Steve Malone

Looking at the "Quakes near volcanoes" plot today shows that 87 earthquakes have been recorded at Mount St. Helens over the past 30 days. This is way above the average for the past many years. Is this significant? Actually, no. Its called a sampling artifact that gives the impression of increased activity. For the details......
Several days of very warm weather has resulted in a couple of large snow avalanches at Mount St Helens but apparently no unusually large ones at other volcanoes. The seismic network at Mount St. Helens is particularly good at picking up the shaking due to large snow avalanches. Two such events on the afternoon of May 14 got our attention. For copies of seismograms and photos......
A large explosion was reported in the early morning hours of April 25 in North Bend, WA. I reviewing the seismic records we find signals consistent with this report. For a preliminary report.....
PNSN instruments picked up the ground vibrations generated by the deadly Oso landslide.

Legacy web site content returns

March 17, 2014

by Steve Malone

Two years ago the PNSN web site changed format in a big way. New features and capabilities were added and the look and feel was greatly improved. But, many of the old popular pages were left behind. We have now converted many of these pages to generic documents that can be linked from the new pages but are still in the old format. For a summary of what we have now....

Ice avalanches on Cascade volcanoes

February 28, 2014

by Steve Malone

With the recent heavy snows in the mountains after a long, cold dry spell the Cascades could be primed for big snow avalanches. However, just in the past couple of days we have seen two big seismic sources that we interpret to be, at least initiated as ice avalanches at Mount Rainier and Glacier Peak. For some details and photos...... (and an update)

A New View On What's Shaking on the Cascade Volcanoes

February 26, 2014

by Jon Connolly

We have added a new interactive graphic to the PNSN home and volcano page that provides a quick summary of the latest Cascade volcanic seismicity. This graphic replaces a table view of the same data. We have strived to make the PNSN landing page a quick summary view of immediate information that allows a user to drill down for more info if desired. The table view for recent volcanic seismicity was a bit clumsy and fell short of this goal.